Fooled By Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

Taleb describes a hypothetical scenario in which an infinite number of monkeys type on keyboards. Taleb says that at some point, one of these monkeys would write an exact copy of The Iliad. Taleb then asks the reader to consider whether they would wager their life savings on that monkey next writing The Odyssey. The purpose of this thought experiment is to show how survivorship bias functions. Survivorship bias is a “cognitive fallacy in which, when looking at a given group, you focus only on examples of successful individuals (the ‘survivors’) in the selection process rather than the group as a whole (including the ‘non-survivors’)” (MasterClass, “Survivorship Bias”). Taleb poses the fundamental question underlying survivorship bias: “How much can past performance […] be relevant in forecasting future performance?” (171). Just because the monkey was successful once does not mean that it will be successful again. In business, one might have a record of success; however, in Taleb’s view, this should not be the only consideration. Taleb says that there are two factors one must consider in this context. First is the degree of randomness that impacts the person’s profession and the second is what he calls “the number of monkeys in operation” (172).